Election Forecasts


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02.01.16 Parliamentary Elections Spain
Last month the Spanish Parliament was elected and the new parties Podemos and Ciudadanos took part in these elections for the first time. More than twenty different institutes published current poll results that mostly were based on data collected by telephone. The GAD3 Institute in Madrid gave the best prediction of the election result:

Many polling institutes tried to give a precise prediction, which heightened the joy of the best performance. GAD3-President Narciso Michavila thanked me after the publication of the forecast quality and celebrated the victory together with his team.

11.11.15 Parliamentary Elections Switzerland & Canada
The election of the new National Council of Switzerland was held in October which I assessed the validity of the election forecasts by measuring how well the polls matched election outcome: Longchamp, Hermann und Kollegen waren präzis. The institutes and also the electoral stock market ProKons showed an excellent performance. Thanks to the Tagesanzeiger datablog for being mentioned and to Swiss colleagues for interesting exchanges.

In the Canadian federal election 2015 was a great opinion change, which made forecasts more difficult. Bryan Breguet and Forum Research have, in addition to me, also analyzed the validity of the election forecasts. However, both used the mean absolute error and Forum rounded the election result. Other interesting analyses to survey mode are available from Prof. Claire Durand. Jean-Marc Leger, CEO of the largest Canadian poll institute Leger Marketing, referred to the robocall firms that reported the changes within campaigning in a different way.